Let’s get our numbers right

Let’s get our numbers right

First published in theSun on 1st January 2014, here.
Tricia Yeoh is the chief operating officer of a local, independent think-tank. She wishes everyone a happy and crime-free 2014. 

THE last week of the year is meant to be a peaceful, reflective one. Mine was anything but. For the second time in 2013, I contributed to the country’s crime statistics by having my personal belongings taken from me (this time, in the not-so-sleepy-town of Malacca).

Anyone who has been a victim of crime would go through the normal steps of feeling shocked, angry and then eventually disappointed with the system that one imagines is meant to protect, and not harm. My experiences have been no different; and it is certainly easy to poke at why the administration has failed to combat crime when these incidents become personal stories that are shared widely on social networks.

Official government statistics, however, seem to indicate a lowering of reported crime. Indexed crime reportedly fell from more than 76,000 cases in the first half of 2012 to over 74,000 cases in the same period of 2013.

But violent crime itself has risen, which includes robbery.

Of course, the real question is how reliable these figures are. Malaysia has stopped providing crime data to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. Critics would be quick to point out that statistics can be easily manipulated to suit political needs. Recall, for instance, the startling revelation last year in which a veteran police officer wrote a letter claiming there was a systematic attempt to lower crime statistics by tampering with how crime cases are classified whenever a police report is lodged.

This letter is worth revisiting because it hits the nail on its head, addressing the core of what truly afflicts crime management today: Political interference.

Take, for example, the claim that there were cases where foreigners with work permits were being arrested just to increase statistics, and where suspects in other cases would be shifted around just to “close” a case.

This reminds me of what I consider to be the most brilliant television series to date, The Wire (Season 3), which presents an accurate picture of that sometimes murky relationship between politics and the city police in America’s drug-ridden Baltimore.

In one episode, the police commissioner is under pressure from the city’s mayor to reduce crime rates, in light of an impending election, and instructs his subordinate to lower the felony rate, with a blatant, “I don’t care how you do it”. The weary police major responds by saying there are “processes” he could employ to “reclassify” cases.

This is a fictitious rendition of a city in a different part of the world, but the game-play between this politician seeking a popular mandate and the public administration that does his bidding out of sheer coercion can be easily transplanted into any context, ours included.

What politicians may not realise is that massaging these crime figures can have serious consequences. Falsely depressing numbers give the impression that a certain location is safer than it actually is. Residents are not put on the alert they ought to be. Worse, when reality hits based on personal experiences, there is a growing sense of distrust of the authorities.

Now, I cannot begin to understand the complexities of managing a police force in any comprehensive way. But this one example shows that, perhaps, politicians are making use of “indexed crime” and statistics in a way that disincentivises performance in a real and meaningful way. Perhaps, ironically enough, it is due to the incessant need to deliver numbers that has eroded the police force’s ability to truly tackle crime in a more concerted and effective manner.

And this is where residents like you and me come in. As people who would be the direct beneficiaries of an improved system, we ought to first demand for transparency in information. Having clearly broken-down data as to specific locations in which crimes are taking place, and at what time of the day, would help us be on the alert. This ought to be regularly updated and publicly accessible.

This sort of data is controversial because it highlights hotspot areas, which may in turn place black marks on selected police stations. But this is the best possible way of ensuring accountability. In fact, William J. Bratton (the famed police commissioner of New York City) went on to successfully transform the Los Angeles police department by establishing personal relationships between police officers and residents, and introducing new statistical models to track crime.

There are numerous other factors that contribute to a rising crime rate, chief of which being socio-economic conditions and poor educational backgrounds.

These are macroeconomic factors beyond the control of a police force, but which do fall under the mandate of a government. These must be consistently examined, and the results of Malaysia’s dismal standing in the international PISA rankings are not encouraging either.

But even without elaborating upon the root causes of crime, it is clear that much can and should be done in the way the police force as an institution itself can be better managed. Much has already been written about the recommendation to implement the Independent Police Complaints and Misconduct Commission. This is not likely to be revisited, given past vehement opposition.

The most basic and practical thing to do is for political leaders to show leadership by publishing accurate data on crime, regardless of whether the numbers have risen or not. The police force ought to also co-operate on this count, which would display goodwill on their part.

Finally, a lot more effort must be put into police-community interactions, either with the help of local councils, neighbourhood committees, Rukun Tetangga, religious groups or otherwise. Armed with the right information, these multi-stakeholder interest groups can then collaborate in the collective effort of managing crime together.

 

Posted in Crime, General Politics, Public Administration | Leave a comment

Leaky valves need fixing

(first published in theSun on 19th December 2013 here).

GREATER scrutiny needs to be placed on public officials, especially in their relationship with the private sector, in light of reports and indicators.

In the Global Financial Integrity (GFI) report released last week, Malaysia was ranked as the fourth highest in the world in terms of illicit capital outflow, just after China, Russia and Mexico. Malaysia had a cumulative outflow of US$370 billion from 2002 to 2011 – or a whopping RM1.2 trillion in total. This is a significant increase of almost 30% from its last report, where over the previous 10 years up to 2010, Malaysia exported US$285 billion, or RM921 billion of illegal funds.

Illicit outflows in this context are defined as illegally earned, transferred or utilised cross-border transfer of funds, which can generally be categorised as either money disappearing from the national balance of payments, or as trade misinvoicing.

There are several sources of such illegal outflows. One possibility is that our macroeconomic conditions have been considered so unstable as to have triggered loss of investor confidence in the economy, and subsequently capital flight out of the country. Recall that earlier this year, Fitch Ratings downgraded Malaysia from “stable” to “negative” outlook, noting the country’s poor public finances and uncertain budgetary reform prospects. (The government has since announced that the goods and services tax will be introduced from mid-2015, which is expected to help in fiscal consolidation).

Second, public officials have also been identified as one of the leaky valves, who are able to “siphon money away from public coffers and into secret offshore bank accounts”. This is both caused by and creates an underground economy, in which external contractors foster relationships with friendly officers to win government tenders. Indeed, model simulations of Mexico’s illicit outflows confirmed a dynamic interaction between illicit flows and the underground economy that each drove the other.

In a separate study in 2009, academics from Germany and Austria estimated that the shadow economy in Malaysia constitutes 30% of its GDP, even higher than Mexico. And this was taking the conservative definition of market-based legal production of goods and services that are deliberately concealed from public authorities.

It is interesting to use Mexico as a case study, given that it ranks only one place above Malaysia in the current GFI report. Several findings from a detailed analysis of Mexico’s conditions are relevant and ought to be taken as lessons for us, and these are examined below.

For instance, a stable relationship was found between the volume of illicit outflows and the onset and aftermath of its macroeconomic crises, during its 41-year period of study.

Two such crises included a 1976 balance of payment crisis, and the 2007 global economic crisis, after which illicit flows increased as a percentage of GDP.

The finding that a macroeconomic crisis caused illicit financial outflows to increase one year past the crisis is something to be cognisant of, especially since Malaysia has faced running budget deficits since 1998, and a diminishing size of our balance of payments surplus. We are also dangerously nearing the federal debt limit of a debt to GDP ratio of 55%.

In Malaysia’s case, our illicit outflows as a percentage of GDP seemed to spike in the years 2005 and 2010 consisting of about 25% of GDP as opposed to 17-18% of GDP in all other years dating from 2002. One could conduct further studies to examine why the outflows were particularly rampant in these years.

A second observation is that illicit flows (as a percentage of GDP) increased after the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was implemented, possibly because trade openness provided traders more opportunities to misprice trade. This was also exacerbated by high rates of inflation.

Policymakers should also take note of this, given negotiations of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and renewed talks of the EU-Malaysia Free Trade Agreement. There are certain benefits that would accrue from free trade, including potentially increasing economic growth through access to bigger markets, but weak institutions and legal frameworks may then facilitate mispricing, and in turn, illegal capital outflow.

The government’s response to these reports is somewhat mixed. On one hand, it is taking measures to address concerns, for instance amending the Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorism Financing Act to better control for cross-border transfers. Second and more recently, directly negotiated contracts are being published online, and such contracts lie at the heart of kickbacks and bribery.

But these are nowhere near addressing structural and governance-related issues. In the case of Mexico, some specific recommendations included to shrink the underground economy through transparency and accountability involving the award of government contracts, and collecting information on beneficial ownership of companies and financial accounts. Prudent macroeconomic measures would be required to reign in excessive spending, leakages and wastage. Customs administration should also be reformed by ensuring customs invoices are accompanied by a legal undertaking of pricing accuracy by exporters and importers.

The same can surely be argued for Malaysia. Labuan is placed 12th in the Financial Secrecy Index 2013, which ranks jurisdictions according to their secrecy and possible tax havens to attract illicit financial flows.

This year, Malaysia climbed one rank in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index 2013. Although this is to be applauded, it should be noted that Malaysia performed worse in one of the contributing indices, within which country experts are asked whether public officials who abuse their positions have been prosecuted, and whether government has successfully contained corruption.

Much work is still needed in weeding out corruption at its very core. The GFI report has demonstrated the disingenuous relationship between public officials and the private or underground sector, which without the rule of law, leads to massive capital outflow. Policymakers would do well to sit up, take notice and be very, very worried.

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Who governs city hall?

(First published in theSun on 7th November 2013, and can be accessed here).

AT a #BetterCities event I spoke at recently on sustainable public transportation, questions were raised as to what initiatives are taking place in Kuala Lumpur to improve access for cyclists, given the lack of cycle ways in the city.

Although there is some information within the Greater KL Plan under Pemandu on its initiatives to improve the bus, taxi and rail systems, and increase pedestrian walkways, it is only by contacting someone personally within government that I was able to find out that KL City Hall will soon introduce bicycle lanes in parts of KL.

Despite being the nation’s capital, very little is known about KL’s planning policy, how money is spent on this city with an estimated 1.6 million people, and most importantly, how the decision-makers are kept accountable by the public, if at all.

Kuala Lumpur is classified as a Federal Territory (together with Labuan and Putrajaya), making it fall outside the jurisdiction of any state government, although the area was originally part of Selangor before it was created in 1974, which one could say was for primarily political purposes.

The result of this is the unique situation of having KL governed entirely by its local council, in this case the Kuala Lumpur City Hall. Like all other local and municipal councils in Malaysia, the City Hall is run by its civil servants with numerous departments. But there is one significant different, where for instance City Hall does not have councillors, who would ideally act as policy-makers separate from the civil servants who implement policy.

Instead, it has a 15-member Advisory Board, chaired by the mayor, all of whom are appointed by the Yang di-Pertuan Agong on the prime minister’s recommendation. The Federal Capital Act 1960 requires for one member each to come from the Federal Territories Ministry, Finance Ministry, Economic Planning Unit and two members nominated by the Selangor state government.

But it is not just the City Hall that governs what takes place in KL. There is also the Federal Territories Ministry dedicated to the three Federal Territories. For instance, the 2014 budget allocates funds to the City Hall through this ministry. Next year, City Hall is given a total of RM76 million directly, but Kuala Lumpur is also given an additional RM71 million or more, on “new policies” and “one-off” budget items. Some of these are items that fall under the watch of Pemandu, the unit under the Prime Minister’s Department, in the National Key Economic Area’s Greater KL Plan.

In fact, that isn’t its total budget, since additional funds are derived from assessment fees, public housing rental, licences and so on. For instance, the 2013 budget was a whopping RM2 billion. This is even more than the total annual funds given to some ministries in 2014, including the Ministry of Youth and Sports (RM754 million), Foreign Affairs Ministry (RM847 million) and the Human Resources Ministry (RM1.4 billion). This therefore begs the question of financial accountability.

There are three main stakeholders when it comes to issues pertaining to KL: the City Hall, the Federal Territories Ministry, and Pemandu. One pertinent question is which of these three would be the ultimate decision-maker for KL, and more importantly, whose responsibility is it to transparently make budgets accessible? A preliminary search on the City Hall’s website reveals practically no information on its annual budgets, how allocated funds are spent, and for what purposes.

There has been debate in the past on introducing local council elections, an issue which both the opposition-led states in Selangor and Penang have explored but in vain, given the negative response by the federal government. It is certainly time to advocate perhaps for a pilot local elections to take place, perhaps at one of the zones within Petaling Jaya to begin with.

However, even if local council elections take place – which is a long shot – this would not solve the lack of accountability problems in KL since it does not even have councillors to elect in. Under such circumstances, perhaps it is time to raise the possibility of having mayoral elections.

The mayor is currently appointed by the federal territories minister for three-year terms.

If KL residents were able to vote in their mayor of choice in City Hall, they would be able to hold this person accountable to funds paid, demand access to all sorts of information, and fully participate in the city’s policy-making process. This is not the case currently, where the RM2 billion or so is spent practically without public scrutiny.

As we respond to the national budget that was unveiled two weeks ago, it is equally imperative that citizens take cognizance of how the numbers work for those of us who are rate-payers in the city. City budgets are what eventually contribute to making our daily lives better through what is spent on roads, public transport and infrastructure. Without a detailed budget breakdown from the City Hall, keeping government in check is almost an impossible task.

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The economy grows with human rights

(First published in theSun on 24th October 2013, and can be accessed here.)

TWO things will be taking place simultaneously tomorrow: the 2014 Budget announcement, and the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) in Geneva, a review of our human rights records over the past four years. Is there any direct correlation between civil liberties and economic growth? What is the relationship and can this be measured?

Researchers (BenYishay and Betancourt) in their study of the relationship between the two found that “personal autonomy and individual rights” is the most significant indicator in explaining long-term economic growth. This is because it captures the ability of individuals to exercise their personal social freedoms and economic rights freely with respect to employment, location, and ownership of property.

The significant relationship between the two is unsurprising. Individuals having the ability to freely choose whom they wish to marry, the education they want for themselves, where to work and live, without interference from any external party including the state, allows for individuals to own property and participate in the exchange of goods and services freely, which make for a flourishing economy.

Of course, some critics would question how China or Vietnam have progressed so remarkably without fulfilling certain civil liberty criteria. One response is that their economic activities in the earlier years revolved around low level development growth, such as in agricultural markets.

Once economies move into modern development markets that require the rule of law such as financial markets, the application of civil liberties and political rights – the equal treatment of all citizens alike before the law – will certainly start to matter. The Index of Economic Freedom, for example, also shows how a higher score for the rule of law leads to better economic freedom. As China and Vietnam move into these markets, it may perhaps become more imperative that they apply these principles.

Another study by a World Bank economist showed that civil liberties impact positively on government projects and government effectiveness by allowing citizens’ voices and a free media to keep government accountable, since centralised, top-down approaches to governance fail to deliver expected results. (Pritchett and Kaufman, 1998).

Our human rights record as compiled by the UN Human Rights Council from various organisations for the UPR shows violations with regard to religion, peaceful assembly, indigenous people’s native customary rights, refugee rights, and so on. The passing of the Prevention of Crime Act (PCA) that brings back detention without trial and is essentially a return of the Internal Security Act (ISA), and the court judgment on “Allah” make our record even more troubling.

Malaysia is one such country that has moved up the value chain into higher level modern development markets, and its growth now depends on these, hence the emphasis on the services sector. But what policymakers and cabinet leaders must realise is that apart from focusing on industrial policy, fundamental factors to achieving long-term economic growth must include civil liberties, political freedom and the rule of law.

This is essentially an exercise on whether greater democratisation leads to a more vibrant and robust economy, and different research seem to show this is certainly the case. As individual freedoms are granted and civil liberties restored, Malaysia would eventually become an attractive place to live, work and set up a family. Foreign companies wanting to invest, and the foreign talent pool we hope to attract are made up of individuals who want to exercise their rights to religion, expression and peaceful assembly. These are all factors that contribute directly to a dynamic economy.

Individual liberties would also allow for greater participatory democracy. Local communities being able to check on local council, state and federal government spending, for example, would reduce the likelihood of corruption taking place. Government projects would be more effective in their delivery, thereby boosting economic development the way in which they are set out to do.

The study referred to at the beginning of this piece unfortunately does not provide country by country data. It would be interesting to examine how Malaysia fares in the “personal autonomy and individual rights” category. While individuals are free to exercise social and economic rights, these rights do not seem to apply uniformly to all citizens of all races, religions, regions, genders or political affiliations.

Finally, it is also apt to ask whether individuals in our society are free to “participate in the exchange of goods and services”, especially given the dominance of state-owned companies prevalent in our economy. For private enterprises to participate in the economy – which would be the driver of growth – the presence of government-linked companies and by default, political interests in the economy, must eventually be reduced to a minimum.

As Malaysians tune in to the budget announcement tomorrow, let us not forget that at the very same time, our human rights record will be under intense scrutiny for a full 3.5 hours in Geneva, and that these two events are more inextricably linked than what governments may have us think.

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Money for Nothing

Money for Nothing

(First published in theSun on 10th October 2013, full article can also be found here).

IF there is one government document Malaysians look forward to each year, it’s the Auditor-General’s Report. Once released, we go crazy picking it apart and selecting our favourite delectable pieces to rave about to friends.

It was no different this year with the 2012 report. This time, we even managed to make it to the Wall Street Journal that reported on the wasteful spending and mismanagement.

For instance, we read about the Education Ministry wasting RM2 billion on poor school security systems with unsatisfactory results, 20 branded wall clocks bought by the Broadcasting Department for RM3,810 each, more than 38 times the estimated price of RM100, and a RM400,000 claim difference for Health Ministry uniforms, among many other ridiculously shameful examples (never mind the 44 missing loaded firearms that the police said could have fallen into the sea from boats).

A total estimate of wastage caused by such gross inefficiency was not given, mainly because this was merely a partial audit of the federal government bureaucracy. The report only covered observations from the audit of 45 programmes/activities/projects of the federal ministries/departments and management of six government companies, so imagine the results if this sampling was widened to include the hundreds of programmes run by the total number of 24 ministries over the full year.

Even so, the total sum of wastage based on select cases quoted by mainstream media came up to RM3.5 billion, which, by the way, is RM200 million more than what the Finance Ministry has told us the government would save by increasing oil prices in its recent subsidy rationalisation move.

Although government does eventually need to phase out subsidy dependency, what infuriates people most is that such efforts are not perceived to be matched in commensurate measure by attempts to reduce unnecessary government spending.

It was timely that an IDEAS policy paper (the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs for which I work) by author Professor David Jones from the University of Brunei Darussalam, gave specific proposals on how transparency could help existing failings in the public procurement system.

He states that Malaysia spends more than RM150 billion each year on procurement, almost one fourth of our nominal GDP. This is higher than what most OECD countries spend, about 12% of their GDP annually.

The various acts, treasury instructions and circulars that form the basis of government procurement are clear, for example in stipulating that open tenders are required for works, goods and services procured worth more than RM200,000 a year.

However, direct purchases and quotation/ closed tenders are still allowed for procured works, goods and services of value below RM200,000, which opens up a lot of room for potential bribery and corrupt practices – and this is the heart of the matter.

The three most worrying concerns that this annual debacle raises are first, that the report released year after year does little to change administrative practices but raise public ire.

Although a committee will be set up to scrutinise the report and take “stern action” against anyone involved in misappropriation, it remains to be seen if the real culprits will be brought to shame.

Second is the culture that is ingrained into many public servants that government money is abundant and ever-flowing. During my first few months of working at the newly-elected Selangor government, the staff in charge of catering food for meetings would consistently increase the number of people being ordered for.

As I understand it, this was common practice: order for more, so that the remaining food could be packed by civil servants who would mysteriously flock in from other parts of the building. Although this has since changed, one wonders if this applies in larger scale in say, ministry offices.

Among the recommendations of the IDEAS policy paper to improve the procurement system are to publicise the laws, regulations and instructions governing procurement, widely advertise tenders and quotations, disclose the budget ceiling for each tender, disclose the company awarded the tender, the reasons for this, better procurement planning processes, and also include a representative from a watchdog organisation to sit in procurement board meetings.

The auditor-general has made 796 different recommendations to the federal government in his 2010, 2011 and 2012 reports. This year, he specifically cited improper payment and weakness in management of products and assets as among the weaknesses observed.

Of course, what is not mentioned is the inability of civil servants to themselves act even if they wanted to because ultimately, evaluation and contract awards are influenced by politicians’ lobbying, and “recommendation letters” that reflect vested interests that they are connected to.

Third, this raises further questions as to the areas of government spending that the AG’s office does not investigate, for instance public-private partnerships (PPP) and private-finance initiatives (PFI) projects that may not necessarily fall under the government procurement regulation requirements.

Although tenders are encouraged under PPP, the decision is ultimately made by the cabinet. (The cabinet is the final decision-maker for all procured jobs across the board worth more than RM100 million.)

More importantly, government spending during a pre-election period – was the RM2.2 billion payout for present and retired civil servants Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak announced just weeks before the May 5 election part of planned expenditure, for example?

Unless recommendations from the report and independent parties are seriously taken up, without political interference (which we all know is the biggest roadblock on the path to better governance), the AG’s report will continue to be fodder for criticism.

What should be of even more grave concern to all Malaysians is the great unknown – just how much more wastage and inefficiencies are there, which are not being investigated?

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The devil’s in the details

(First published in theSun on 25th September 2013 and can be accessed here).

WHEN Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak launched the Bumiputra Economic Empowerment Council (BEEC), it brought with it more questions than answers.
Since 1971, Malaysia has undergone numerous development plans with the same type of language and goals, starting from the New Economic Policy (NEP).

Each five-year Malaysia Plan had a table detailing the breakdown of ownership of share capital of limited companies by ethnicity. However, through the years, the level of detail in statistical breakdowns has deteriorated. Earlier documents provided richer data than later ones, which hampers comparisons between the plans.

For instance, in the second and third plans (1971-1975 and 1976-1980 respectively), classifications were broken down by “Malays”, or “Malay interests”.

Starting from the Fourth Malaysia Plan (1981-1985), this was replaced by “bumiputra” which included non-Malay bumiputras (with one exception for an ethnic breakdown of poor households in Sabah and Sarawak).

Today, all tables reflective of socioeconomic status under our Malaysia Plans (we are under the 10th Malaysia Plan, from 2011-2015) only show breakdown by bumiputra – this does not distinguish between Malays and non-Malay bumiputra (orang asli and natives from Sabah and Sarawak).

It would have been crucial to make this distinction, since one would expect these two communities to have different needs, within different contexts, and therefore requiring different programmes. Najib in his speech therefore quoted bumiputra corporate company equity rate having gone up to 23.5% in 2011.

This is coming close to, yet not having achieved, the original objective of the NEP launched under the Second Malaysia Plan, with the aim of “… within a period of 20 years, Malay and other indigenous people will manage and own at least 30% of the total commercial and industrial activities in all categories and scales of operation”.

The methodology of calculating this was not clearly spelt out within the plans. This resulted in a paper published in 2006 by a think-tank suggesting that this target had been surpassed, if one included the equity held in care of bumiputra by government-linked companies (GLCs) and nominee companies (the traces of which are extremely difficult to determine based on publicly available sources).

Related to this is whether or not publicly listed companies ought to be evaluated based on par value or market capitalisation – in 2006, the Economic Planning Unit held it ought to be the former when in fact the latter seemed to be a more sensible and accurate measure of equity ownership.

But say that the government’s official calculations are correct, and we take the figures given in Najib’s speech at face value. This would have spelt out tremendous achievements, since bumiputra monthly average household income has increased by 2,500% in 42 years, to RM4,457 in 2012, and bumiputra poverty rate has gone down from 64.8% in the 1970s to 2.2% in 2012.

The bumiputra from the Kadazan, Iban and orang asli communities would surely be delighted to learn of this.

With such stellar performance, one would have thought increased government aid would no longer have been necessary. Herein lies the problem of potential uneven distribution of wealth within the bumiputra community, and it does not help that we only have lump-sum figures to work with.

Strangely enough, Najib states that the 10th Malaysia Plan was aimed at “providing fair opportunities to all Malaysians, regardless of ethnic groups …” and “based on the principle of friendly market, need, transparency and merit”, but within the same paragraph also says that the meritocracy here meant “competition among bumiputra”.

It is only possible to mean one and not the other; both statements cannot be simultaneously correct.

The numerous studies of successful Malay entrepreneurs today ought to be testament to their ability to flourish in a competitive market. The BEEC assumes that the bumiputra needs more help than ever before.

This reverses the prime minister’s commitments made under the New Economic Model, to open up the economy through fairness in government tenders, fair competition, removing market distortions, among others.

In his administration’s efforts to establish greater competition among the bumiputra, he has also singled out bumiputra vendor development systems “based on merit” among “all ministries and GLCs”, including Petronas for the oil and gas sectors.

For instance, specific mention was made that bumiputra companies would benefit from contracts worth RM20 billion each year for upstream and downstream service work.

Petronas Licensing and General Guidelines 2012 does spell out strict procedures of obtaining licences from Petronas. This already requires that any company must have bumiputra involvement at the equity, directorship, management and employee levels at certain levels.

No details on the licensing process after negotiations is usually made available thereafter, apart from a media release published online on the successful contract awarded.

One concern here is the lack of transparency and accountability, since this usually involves large sums of money and the only oversight on Petronas being that of the prime minister, as stipulated by the Petroleum Development Act 1974. This is especially so if licensing changes are made without having to follow any approval process.

Transparency is a problem for issues of aid anywhere in the world. Even in the realm of international aid, charities and celebrity donors are told how many gunny-sacks of rice are being flown in to a Third World village. But they don’t know how much rice exactly is being given to whom.

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All-round Fiscal Responsibility

(First posted in theSun on 11 September 2013 and can be accessed here.)

THE government says it intends to pursue fiscally responsible policies, but this must be consistently applied throughout its bureaucracy from top to bottom, and in all areas.

Last month, ratings house Fitch Ratings downgraded Malaysia from a “stable” to “negative” outlook, noting the poor state of Malaysia’s public finances and uncertain prospects for budgetary reform and fiscal consolidation.

Indeed, there have been concerns expressed over recent years of the country’s federal government debt, which has risen up to 53.5% of GDP at the end of 2012.

The two budgetary vulnerabilities it identified were the reliance on petroleum-derived revenues, and the high and rising weight of subsidies in expenditure.

It is likely for these reasons that the Najib administration decided to revert to its “subsidy rationalisation” plan, namely the announcement last week of the fuel price increase of 20 sen for RON95 and 15 sen for RON97 at the petrol pumps, which will reportedly save government up to RM3.3 billion annually.

From a fiscally responsible point of view, removing petrol subsidies both ensures that government is reallocating resources to better target aid to the poor, as well as reduces the dependency people (including the rich) have on cheap fuel. The same argument would go for the goods and services tax (GST) that may be announced in the 2014 budget.

Both reducing subsidies and introducing the GST would, in the long run, certainly help boost Malaysia’s debt situation, thereby improving our international ratings. But the real reasons for which people are questioning these decisions have little to do with economic theory.

First, subsidies to independent power producers (IPPs) contribute an estimated RM8 billion annually out of the total subsidies paid a year (RM42.4 billion in 2012). Although some IPP contracts are being renegotiated, there is a need for greater transparency as to the terms of these new contracts. A legitimate question is therefore why the subsidy rationalisation scheme is not being uniformly implemented across the board.

Second, leaders had previously committed to the maintaining of petrol price before the general election. Although one understands the need for politicians to be expedient, this does not help Malaysians in their financial planning. Knowing one’s potential rapid increase in living costs would allow for adjustments to be made accordingly. Surprise price increases are not helpful in this case.

A third and most common complaint by now is the exorbitant and excessive spending of government, many foolish practices of which are reported year after year by the auditor-general.

It is all well and good for government to responsibly raise revenues so that the national coffers do not run dry. But an equally, and perhaps more, responsible thing to do would be to watch where the money is being spent, and to do so in an accountable manner.

The Resources Governance Index 2013, which measures the quality of governance in the oil and gas sectors around the world, ranked Malaysia 34 out of 58 countries and scoring only 46 out of 100. Placed in the “weak” category, Malaysia performed poorly in the areas of “institutional and legal setting” and “safeguards and quality controls”.

Transparency in government procurement is another equally important area. The Auditor-General’s Report in 2011 revealed that the open tender process was not conducted for several projects. It is particularly important for projects that are privatised under either PPP (public-private partnerships) or PFI (private finance initiatives) arrangements to be awarded under open tenders, which is not necessarily the case at present.

Finally, the greatest concern is that incomes are not rising in commensurate measure with the rise in living costs. A more open and competitive economic environment would allow for greater job opportunities that accompany investments, especially that of higher value functions. Malaysia’s performance in the Economic Freedom Index 2013 dropped slightly, affected by declines in monetary freedom, trade freedom and freedom from corruption.

It is important for information to be made available in the value chain of money both going in and out of government accounts. Although recorded in the thick budget books of “Estimates of Federal Government Revenue and Expenditure” respectively, there are still elements that could be made more transparent.

In short, while the government waxes lyrical about the need to exercise fiscal responsibility, this must be applied in all areas of its policymaking. There must therefore be a visible drive to reduce wastage and excessively lucrative pay-outs to companies at the expense of the public. Without this, the level of trust in what these funds are being used for will not improve, subsequently making all justifications of economic efficiency futile.

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Thank You – Next Steps

Dear Friends,

Thank you for your friendship in both personal and professional capacities. The last year or so has been particularly exciting in the various projects I have worked on in the market research, political and documentary filmmaking arenas. I am soon to embark on a different chapter, and have taken up the offer to join IDEAS (Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs), based in Kuala Lumpur, as its new COO (www.ideas.org.my). You can continue to contact me here, or at my new work email address at tricia@ideas.org.my for work matters.
I have enjoyed interacting with each of you, and look forward to crossing paths professionally with you once again in the future. Selamat Hari Raya Aidilfitri to all who are celebrating it. Have a good one with friends and family, and maaf zahir dan batin kepada semua.
Warmest Regards,
Tricia
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Fixing the Fundamentals

Fixing the fundamentals 

(First published in theSun on Friday, 16th May 2013)

THE country needs a sincere leadership that is serious in fixing the fundamentals of our system of governance, but since this seems almost impossible to achieve, the question is really: what are realistic steps ahead?

Newly sworn-in Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak called for national reconciliation following the 13th general elections. This is ironic as it was preceded by labelling the election results a “Chinese Tsunami”, which the Barisan Nasional coalition is now saying was only a natural knee-jerk reaction to an even worse parliamentary performance than previously.

In a closed-door roundtable discussion on inclusive development among civil society organised by UKM’s Institute of Ethnic Studies (KITA) held earlier this week, it was established among many present that to move Malaysia forward, differences must be acknowledged and then addressed – not just ethnic but on the points of socioeconomic class, geographical, locational, religious, gender and more.

One might add another dimension to the list, that of a political divide. Advocates of either political coalition might have seen themselves increasingly hostile towards each other in the lead-up to polling day. And following from an exhausting and mentally stressful few weeks of election hype, some might even respond to this by calling for a pause on all things political.

Some, including myself, would like to see Barisan and Pakatan Rakyat members of Parliament practising bi-partisanship in pushing certain agendas for reform forward.

Indeed, this paints a pretty picture of a world in which individual conscience might guide parliamentary voting – as opposed to the bloc-voting style now imposed. This also assumes that there are individual politicians who do have moral compasses.

In this imaginary universe, reform-minded politicians from both sides would gladly come together in the substantive efforts of, for example, freeing the media from political interference; strengthening Parliament to create a check-and-balance on the increasingly powerful executive arm; and perhaps – the most utopian of all – put an end once and for all to race-based politics (linked to which is the incessant fanning the flame of racial polarisation). These are just some of the basic building blocks of what any progressive, democratic nation ought to already possess.

Take for instance the gaping divide between the information that rural and urban communities are able to access. During and after the election, media infrastructure at the disposal of the ruling coalition have been fully harnessed for propaganda purposes.

Mainstream media in the form of television, radio and newspapers whose ownership is linked to Barisan continue to spew out messages that can be deemed as stirring up negative response.

If the government were serious about building reconciliatory bridges across what it considers to be racial division, would it not be most logical to deal with these remarks? Such messaging is what creates lingering uneasiness and tension, which may not even necessarily reflect the reality of daily amicable cross-ethnic interactions.

Add to this the inability of those in more secluded rural areas to access any form of alternative media online, and you get the widest possible gap: that of the mind. This creates disparate worldviews, the single biggest problem that any society faces.

With divergent sources of information and, therefore, education, it is almost impossible to speak of honest reconciliation or inclusivity without seriously addressing media reform. Malaysia has fallen to its lowest-ever position in the 2013 World Press Freedom Index “because access to information is becoming more and more limited”, falling 23 places to 145th rank among the 179 countries surveyed.

This should be of great concern to our leaders who we hope are trying to educate, and not dumb-down, its citizens. The reality is that for bi-partisanship to work in our political system, parties will have to give up the practice of bloc-voting.

Second, there would be absolutely no point if the like-minded agenda does not include reforming laws and policies which are considered archaic and restrictive to basic liberties. In all likelihood, it will be tremendously difficult for Barisan parliamentarians to push for any of these fundamentals individually, if their leader does not equally mandate it.

The 13th general election has created many conversations, which should be encouraged as each community seeks steps for improvement. But given the dismal conditions of certain fundamentals that do not seem likely to be corrected in the near future, how feasible is it for the electorate to trust that “reconciliation” will be managed in its proper and rational manner?

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Commentary on Malaysia’s 13th general elections on Freedom Barometer

Commentary on Malaysia’s 13th General Election

(Written for and first published by Freedom Barometer).

By Tricia Yeoh

The 13th general election, which was held on May 5th 2013 across Malaysia, was anticipated to be one of the most hotly contested in the country’s history. This was so because of the extremely tight race between the ruling incumbent coalition, Barisan Nasional (National Front) and the opposition coalition, Pakatan Rakyat (People’s Alliance). Five years earlier, what is now popularly known as a political tsunami swept across the country, in which the Barisan was for the first time denied a two-thirds majority in Parliament and lost a total of five state governments to Pakatan, two of which are the urban and business centres of the country, Selangor and Penang, which together form more than 60% of Malaysia’s GDP.

In the lead-up to the recent polls, the political stakes were high on both sides of the divide. For the first time ever, election manifestos were launched weeks in advance, translated into multiple languages (to accommodate Malaysia’s multilingual society). Separate non-governmental organisations sprung up to monitor the elections, and the social media space was vociferously used to promote policy offerings on a wide range of concerns. The main issues affecting voters, which both the Barisan and Pakatan attempted to respond to, were that of corruption, economic or bread-and-butter woes, and the crime rate.

The reason for the close competition was because for the first time, there was a viable opposition that had branded itself as an alternative federal government, after having achieved key financial successes in the states they govern. Although there were initial criticisms that the three component parties – the Democratic Action Party (DAP), People’s Justice Party (PKR) and Pan-Islamic Malaysian Party (PAS) – were of greatly opposing views over the five years from 2008 until 2013, the coalition was largely able to present a cohesive front, smooth over any major internal flaws and come to consensus on administrative tasks. The coalition also presented a number of common policy documents, including Shadow Budgets in the last two budget cycles that spoke of the ability to agree on a wide range of policy issues.

In this election, Barisan got a further beating by winning a total of 133 out of the 222 Parliamentary seats, 7 less than the 140 it got in 2008. This translates into 59.9% of seats, even though Barisan only received 47% of the popular vote nationwide. The opposition Pakatan won 89 seats, with more than 50% of the popular vote. Amongst the Barisan component parties, the more ethnically Chinese-based parties, the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and Parti Gerakan suffered the greatest losses, losing 17 seats; MCA was down 15 to 6 parliament seats, and Gerakan is left with one. The opposition’s gains were noteworthy: DAP gained 10 new seats, winning 38 in total; PKR won 30 seats in all, and PAS took 21. This is significant given that Barisan leader and Prime Minister Najib Razak had committed to winning back the two-third majority it lost in 2008.

Barisan had also channelled a large amount of resources into winning back the jewel on the crown, the state of Selangor, but ultimately failed to do so. Pakatan strengthened its grip on three of its states, Selangor, Penang and Kelantan, by winning two-third majorities in each of them, but failed to hold on to Kedah, a rural state in the north of the Peninsular. Maintaining a hold on these dynamic states that contribute to the economic vibrancy of the country is considered a positive for the opposition Pakatan.

Although Barisan will continue to lead the country, this victory was marred by numerous allegations on electoral irregularities, which the opposition claim has cost them a possible victory. On the day of polling, many pictures and videos of alleged foreign voters were circulated on social media, claimed to be illegitimate citizens of Malaysia, given identity cards by the government to boost the support for the Barisan coalition. In the lead-up to polling day, other reports were being spread that foreigners were being flown in with the co-operation of the national airlines company for the same reason, some allegedly receiving money in exchange for their votes.

None of these reports can be considered substantiated evidence yet at this point; electoral reform watchdog Bersih 2.0 will hold a People’s Tribunal to collect such reports, whilst PKR is doing the same on behalf of the opposition. With these in hand, election petitions are expected to be filed in court to seek judicial review of the results of 27 separate parliamentary seats that were considered dubious. The criteria for results analysis were seats where the margin of win was below 5%, spoilt votes outnumber a small margin of win, early and postal votes outnumber the margin of win garnered from normal votes, to the extent that it affected the results of the normal votes, and seats that had reports of fraud. To date, complaints received were categorized into six areas, ranging from voters not being allowed to vote because someone had voted in their name, BN purchasing votes by offering cash vouchers, or disappearing indelible ink (Malaysia used indelible ink for the first time in this election to avoid double voting).

Apart from these issues, one of the main problems raised as a result of the elections has been that of malapportionment of constituencies. For instance, there are 15,800 voters for the one Putrajaya parliament seat, but 144,000 voters in Kapar. As a result, there were substantially more voters in Pakatan-won seats (an average of 77,655) compared with those in Barisan-won seats (average of 46,510). The gross imbalance of weightage given to voting constituencies is a deep flaw in the Malaysian electoral system, affecting the ability of the opposition to make greater gains in the future even with a higher popular support. This is a historical heritage of the delineation of constituencies, which is due to be revised this year, the last demarcation exercise having taken place in 2003. However, this time the Election Commission and Barisan politicians will have to negotiate with their Pakatan counterparts since any addition to the number of constituencies will require a two-third majority support in Parliament. This re-delineation process is probably the single most important event that needs to be carefully monitored, as it will have a direct impact on at least the next two to three elections to come.

Several Malay-language newspapers along with some government leaders branded the outcome of the election as a ‘Chinese Tsunami’, which was considered distasteful to many. This was based on the premise that the ethnic Chinese had voted strongly against the government, in favour of the opposition. The messaging would have created the notion that the Malays were pro-government, and Chinese pro-opposition, an unnecessary and irresponsible statement to make given the need for inclusive narratives in the multi-ethnic country of Malaysia. Other analysts, however, have since emerged to critique this, by saying that it was the young and urban voters who chose the opposition, whilst rural voters continued to support the incumbents. This election, for example, saw 25% of all voters being newly registered, with 22% aged 30 and below. This group had no voting patterns to track from previous record, and were the most likely to be urban, having access to the internet, alternative and social media, and therefore more critical minded. Seeing as Malaysia’s population is set to reach an urbanisation rate of more than 70% by 2020, both political coalitions would do be well advised to tailor their messages to this audience.

The coming year will continue to be politically heated as the central party of Barisan, the United Malays’ National Organisation (UMNO), anticipates its party elections in October, along with its general assembly. It has serious rethinking to do, since it now sits as the dominant party in the coalition, due to the failure of other Barisan parties to make positive gains. In the opposition, PKR is also expected to hold party elections at the end of the year, whilst PAS will call its annual muktamar (general assembly) as well. Political observers interested in developments in Malaysia will do well to monitor the goings-on within the parties, as these would have a direct impact on national level politics.

In terms of citizen participation, this election saw a record high voter turnout of 85%. Queues began as early as 7am in many polling stations, an hour before the booths opened to receive voters. Many groups organised their own events, such as a group in urban Bangsar initiating their planting of colourful cloth “Malaysian Spring Flowers” as an indication of the flowering of democracy. Bersih 2.0 put together volunteers to monitor the election process outside polling stations. The Election Commission granted observer status to several local NGOs, who have submitted reports. One such report by the Institute of Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS) and the Centre for Public Policy Studies (CPPS) concluded that the elections were “partially free and not fair”, to which the Prime Minister’s Department has responded negatively. Public participation in the election process seemed to be encouraging, with a great many young Malaysians excited for the first time at the prospect of voting. This is a trend that must be cultivated over the long-term period.

To conclude, the 13th general election was the culmination of the previous two years’ worth of political angst and upheaval. A period of uncertainty had come over Malaysia as the nation waited for the election announcement date, also affecting the stock market and business sentiment. Now that the results have been announced, things have largely swung back into rhythm, with the exception of opposition rallies that are being held across the country, in rejection of what it considers to be an illegitimate government due to electoral discrepancies. Only time tell if the courts will accede to the election petitions, failing which it is back to the court of public opinion that both the Barisan and Pakatan coalitions will appeal to in the months and years to come, before the next election takes place (either at the state or federal level). Until then, the democratic system of elections and governance will continue to be questioned, and it is hoped that leaders in the country will take cognizance of this in seeking the institutional reform needed for Malaysia’s long-term progress.

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