NST: Change not for the sake of Changing

Amidst all this talk about “Change” in the United States, here is an opinion article in today’s New Straits Times (Malaysia) about changing times in Malaysian politics. I am quoted somewhere inside, at the article here.

NST Online » Columns

2008/11/04

OPINION: Change not for the sake of changing

YONG HUEY JIUN

(From left) Tan Sri Dr Khoo Kay Kim, Tricia Yeoh and Dr Chandran Jeshurun
(From left) Tan Sri Dr Khoo Kay Kim, Tricia Yeoh and Dr Chandran Jeshurun

At first, it captures our imagination. But the change mantra will quickly lose its lustre and appeal if real change does not occur soon, writes YONG HUEY JIUN

AMID the pulsating theatrics in the political battlefield, one theme stands out in the cacophony of dissenting voices. Call it reform, shift or renaissance, they all have one thing in common: they symbolise change.

Spellbound by United States Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama’s stirring speeches on hope and change, Malaysians are joining in the clamour for change. Before long, opposition and ruling party politicians alike are wangling support by adroitly declaring themselves as apostles of change.

Ironically, the chorus of chant, which transcends party affiliations, only threatens to widen the stark gulf between rivals as each tries to trump the other with their promises. But this climate stems not so much from Obama’s magic as the resounding clamour of the electorate in the March 8 general election.

In 1969, the Alliance (now Barisan Nasional) suffered a similar electoral setback as the one last March. The resulting blow led to a bloody race riot that forever altered the course of the nation’s history.
Nearly 40 years later, the same election results, again, fuelled racial tensions, but this time creating a tense equipoise that seemingly verges on political fragmentation and implosion.

Tricia Yeoh, director of the Centre for Public Policy Studies, attributes the calm after the political storm to the choice of parties available during these two very different periods.

“In 1969, the alternative to the ruling government was the single-race party DAP. Today, the alternative is a multiracial party — Pakatan Rakyat — and perhaps this is one of the reasons it did not ignite a similar kind of emotive response.”

Unlike the prevailing period of what some term as the “awakening”, the violence in 1969 was a “revival of ethnic antagonism”, which was rooted in the past, says Tan Sri Dr Khoo Kay Kim, a history professor at Universiti Malaya, who is also a survivor of the 1964 and 1969 race riots.

In 1964, Sino-Malay riots broke out in July and September, which eventually left about 40 people dead. The race riots were blamed on the Indonesian and communist provocateurs at the time.

As history has shown, anything can happen in politics and changes do not necessarily follow a natural sequence of events. On the continuum of change, some ascribe the present development as engineered change.

“It’s more or less a fait accompli that he’s been faced with,” says Universiti Malaya’s former academic Dr Chandran Jeshurun, referring to the pressure on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Badawi to step down.

Change is unavoidable but perhaps this is nowhere more true after 22 years of former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s rule. A centralised top-down approach during his reign inevitably means that the transition to greater openness won’t be a smooth one.

Against this backdrop and a rapidly globalising world and wide access to information means the public will demand greater transparency and accountability.

“A more open and consultative approach… the whole new language of rights and freedom” is going to set the tone for change, says Yeoh.

With young voters making up more than half of the electorate in the March election, politicians who ignored them did so at their own costs.

“The younger generation is going to be looking for reform and they will be listening to the messages that can capture their imagination,” says Yeoh.

No longer struggling to be independent, many agree that it is time the country set itself higher goals. But racial polarisation threatens to backslide the country and reverse the progress already achieved.

“In 1969, we had just been independent for 12 years. Today, expectations are going to be greater because you can see all around you how change is taking place elsewhere,” says Chandran.

Beyond the conviction for the need to change, few leaders have outlined clear policies on where they want to move the country and how they want to move it. Instead of addressing the quagmires facing the country, efforts are expended on circumventing the opponent, unwittingly deflecting attention from reform goals.

At present, issues calling for immediate attention are in no short supply, from the current global economic crisis — still with no end in sight — to a deepening racial polarisation in the country, all of which are towering challenges requiring a sustained focus.

At a time when most of the world is embroiled in war and financial crisis, change offers hope to those who envision a better future. But Yeoh cautions the people against unrealistic expectations.

“We shouldn’t be too enchanted with it. I hope politicians are not using it as a catch-phrase.”

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Operating in Hostile Territory: Democrats in Oklahoma

Coalitions for Obama

Coalitions for Obama

Being in Tulsa, Oklahoma means being in Republican-territory. Which made the trip to the Democratic Headquarters of Tulsa all the more interesting, as we explored the strategies employed by them in convincing citizens to go Blue.

Strangely enough, Oklahoma – officially becoming a city in 1907 – was originally a populist state, without political leanings on either end. It then became a straight Democrat state, although these were still conservative. It was only in the late 1960’s that the socially conservative message was claimed by the Republicans. Some rather strange features of Oklahoma are that it has more registered Democrats than Republicans, Democrats tend to vote Republicans for the top ticket but Democratic in the lower tickets. The biggest battle to watch here is whether the Democrats can regain control of the State Senate. Being one of the most conservative States in America, this will be a fair indication of the country’s political leanings.

Jed Green, Oklahoma State Director, Democratic Party

Jed Green, Oklahoma State Director, Democratic Party

Jed Green, Oklahoma State Director of the Democratic Party, spoke to us in what I considered one of the most impassioned mini-speeches I had heard on the trip. The Democrats have had a fair share to deal with in Oklahoma, with yardsigns being burned, torn up, the words “Anti-Christ” painted on them. He spoke with deep conviction about how some consider themselves to be part of a moral majority, many Republicans genuinely believing (without necessarily stating it) they are part of a holy war. An extremely down to earth guy on the street, he had well-developed views, asking questions of us and perceptions of the Middle East towards the States.

Operating in hostile territory, they had to adopt a strategy of visibility. The more signs the better. The “Pick The Winner” effect: the escalation of Obama supporters based on their belief that others are also voting him in.

The last time Oklahoma voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate was in 1964. It is highly doubtful they’ll do so this time, but analysing its popular vote after tomorrow will be interesting. Republicans don’t even have an office in the entire Oklahoma State, which shows how confident they are of winning.

I’ll be stationed first at the Republican Party Watch, and then proceeding to the Democratic Watch during Election Night! Watch out for a Radio interview I’m doing in KL, probably around the time the results are out. Wednesday morning Malaysian Time, at 89.9FM.

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Final Pre-Election Electoral Map

This is the latest pre-election electoral map, and it looks like a certain Obama win, unless the polling is seriously wrong, as Nate Silver says in the video below. Things are going to be picking up tomorrow morning. These are excellent sites to visit for changing Electoral Maps:

Each website regularly updates its map. This is what the maps looked like at 1000 GMT on Monday 3 November.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t92UlSe-0CQ]

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US Foreign Policy if Obama Wins

David Ignatius, author of Body of Lies
David Ignatius, author of Body of Lies

Granted, foreign policy has not been focused upon very much in the later throes of the Presidential Campaign since the Economic Crisis hit. Although people assumed that Iraq and Afghanistan would feature strongly in the campaign, this held true only in its initial stages.

David Ignatius, Associate Editor of The Washington Post, spoke to us last week to comment on how US foreign policy may shift should Obama win on Tuesday. (Ignatius is also the author of 6 novels, the latest of which being Body of Lies, which became a movie starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Russell Crowe).
Although it sounds very much like the sloganeering Obama has utilised to the highest degree, Ignatius agrees that should Obama take the highest office, “The World Will Change”.
He was however fair to McCain, who has stood up to Bush on the issue of torture amongst others.
Staffing itself will not change significantly, but if there is a theme that can be attached to foreign policy, it would be talking with the enemy, especially with Syria and Iran. Second, there will be increased cooperation with China, and third, greater bilateral relations will be established with Russia.
Although it is true that either President would value the worth of better US-China ties, it is unclear which would be the better outcome for China per se. Speaking to one of the delegates from China here, it seems that should the Democratic party adopt greater protectionist policies on behalf of its own country, there will be more restrictive measures within the free trade agreement vis-a-vis China. In order to shield local markets and reverse unemployment trends across the country, policies may shift outsourcing labour away from China.
On a whole, Southeast Asia will not feature prominently in either Presidency, since they will be spending most of their time grappling with Afghanistan, Iran and North Korea (nuclear weapons), Iraq, Russia (Putin), Mexico (the impending financial crisis that will ripple through the States as well), negotiating the Middle East Peace Process, and the Six Party Talks. The US will need to reach domestic consensus on the issue of International Climate Change before December 2009, which will keep them busy.
Personally, it is foreign positioning rather than strict foreign policy that will change the way the world looks at the United States of America. During one of our conversations, a Tunisian colleague said that Obama’s win may even validate all that the US of A has been droning on about all this while, about democracy and its ability to champion freedoms all across the world. If anything, it is his psychological stance that may influence the way the rest of Government will operate.
However, it is wise to remember that the President of the US is merely the Head of the Executive, and will still need to function with Congress and the rest of American mechanics and agencies (many of whose heads are likely to be maintained). If Congress gets a landslide Democrat win along with Obama’s victory, perhaps then there may be a sliver of opportunity for some policy shifts.
If America is able to articulate its position as a friend, a collaborator, a joint-worker-for-a-better-world, as opposed to its presently perceived position of superior saviour of the world, Big Brother with lots of money, enemy of anyone who disagrees with them, and so on (you get the idea), this will augur well for its future relations with the rest of the world.
Someone asked today, why is there so much interest in the US Elections?
I answered, because every decision America makes has a profound yet direct impact on the rest of us… whether we like it or not.
That is true, and that is why I am here.
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Oklahoma: Republican Heartland

Tulsa, the 2nd largest city in Oklahoma

Tulsa, the 2nd largest city in Oklahoma

Moving farther away from large cosmopolitan cities, I arrived in Tulsa, Oklahoma this afternoon. It is practically summer here! Ditching winter coats and scarves, donning sunglasses, we were greeted by a friendly shuttle driver with whom I had an immediate political conversation. This man was particularly impressive because he was an avid reader and thinker. He had very strong political bias against Obama, saying that he was worried “Obama wouldn’t have had the international experience necessary, nor the international outlook” taken for Presidency. I proffered an alternative views, asking whether Obama’s early years abroad (Indonesia) would have an effect on his international outlook. His strong Republican stance replied that McCain would be the best man for the job.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2I4zp9poSg]

At the Obama rally in Pueblo, Colorado yesterday, I asked some young high school kids what they thought of Obama. This is their reply below. (they also say hi to Malaysia here)

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d66EhH-_P_A]

The two videos are typical of each party campaign’s criticisms of each other. The Democrats criticise the Republicans for the following reasons:

  • Republicans are myopic and insular;
  • Republicans are conservative;
  • Republicans are traditional and cater to the older people

Likewise, there are severe criticisms on the other end. Republicans criticise Democrats for the following:

  • Democrats are too young and unable to reason or analyse properly;
  • Democrats are too liberal and open;
  • Democrats are willing to think about leaving Iraq and adopting open border policies, dialogue without pre-conditions.

This was an appropriate introduction to South-Central/South American political leanings. Oklahoma, which means “red people” because it has the largest Native American population of any state, has gone for the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 1968 and has one of the most conservative congressional delegations in the country. In Oklahoma’s Republican primary McCain secured most of the state’s 38 delegates. At the end of September, polls showed McCain holding a 2-to-1 lead over Obama. Interestingly, McCain has 95% of Republican support, and 41% of Democratic support in Oklahoma.

Aside from the Presidential candidates, the entire Oklahoma House of Representatives will be up for election, and half of the State Senate, currently evenly divided between the Republicans and Democrats. Perhaps one thing I can look out for is whether the State Senate can swing back to the Democrats.

Over the next few days I will be meeting with local churches, campaign offices and of course – finally – the polling booths themselves on Tuesday 4th November!

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Democrat & Republican HQs, Colorado

We were brought to both the Democrat and Republican Campaign Headquarters of Denver, Colorado.

Democratic Headquarters Colorado

Democratic Headquarters Colorado

At the Democrat HQ, we were briefed by Pat Waak, Chair of the Colorado Democratic Party. Experienced in advising on campaigns, during her tenure Colorado maintained its Democratic majorities in the State House and Senate, and added a US House of Reps seat, plus electing a Democratic Governor and state treasurer. The state has increasingly become more pro-Democrat over recent years.

Democratic Campaigners Working Hard

Democratic Campaigners Working Hard

This was the strategy adopted by the Democrat party in the state of Colorado:

  1. Just as Obama’s national campaign of “every State counts”, ensuring 50 (+1) different campaigns for all its states, it adopted an “every County counts” approach, targeting all 64 counties in Colorado.
  2. Targeted the population all along the north-south highway.
  3. Get the young people involved!
  4. Take advantage of the fact that the Republicans themselves have been unhappy about their own party over Iraq, the Federal Deficit, and the extreme position of Republicans “taking their party away from them”.
  5. Focus on the 4 key issues of the state: healthcare, education, economy and the environment.
  6. Use unique “GOTV” (Get Out The Vote) techniques.
  7. Technology: Tracking responses to opponent messaging, tracking reports, have a team to do opposition research.
  8. Get lawyers out on Election Day to monitor any possible voter fraud. They have 3000 lawyers to do the job.
  9. Use coalitions: labour union, disabled groups, ethnic specific (African American, Latin American), gay-lesbian.
Republican Headquarters Colorado

Republican Headquarters Colorado

Political Director Ryan Call of the Colorado Republican Party met with us. He is also campaign manager for Bob Schaffer, running for Senator seat. The discussion centred mainly around Schaffer’s messaging strategy, which in all likelihood will be influenced by national-level McCain messaging. During the Mid-Term elections (this is in between Presidential elections where Americans vote for Congressmen or State level reps), local issues usually drive how people vote. However, national issues become more of a priority during Presidential elections and particularly so this time.

Some quick reactions to the differences between the two campaign headquarters of Denver:

  1. Party workers/volunteers at the Democrat HQ were of mixed ages and ethnicities (black, Asians) whereas those at the Republican HQ were all white.
  2. All volunteers at the Democrat HQ had a laptop each, working furiously on them. I spotted perhaps only two laptops in the Republican HQ.
  3. The volunteers at the Democrat HQ practically swamped us with enthusiastic greetings and chucked dozens of stickers and badges to us; the Republican HQ had these on the tables which we picked up ourselves and were warm and friendly but only when spoken to.
Republicans Making Phonecalls to "Get Out The Vote"

Republicans Making Phonecalls to "Get Out The Vote"

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US Election Ballots: Confusing!

Connect the Lines

Ballots in Colorado: Connect the Lines

Ballots all over the US are different, because State laws have different laws. In fact, in the state of Colorado itself there are about 9 different kinds of voting. The one displayed above, for example, is one where you need to connect the arrows together for the candidate of your choice.

We were astonished at how complicated a ballot actually is. This one is two pages long, because not only are they voting for President, they are voting for the State Senator (this elections, one third of the Senate is up for election), State Congressman, plus their State Legislature (the equivalent of the Congress but at State level). Aside from candidates, they also vote on initiatives – this year there are 10 on the ballot. This includes voting on amendments to the State constitution (on abolishing affirmative action policy on the basis of race, gender etc, amongst others).

The way you get to select what goes into the ballot to be voted on, is this: There must be sufficient signatories to a particular cause, which goes up then to the Secretary of State. If there are enough signatures, the initiative gets to be on the ballot. This is a perfect example of bottoms up participatory democracy, in which citizens themselves truly decide on what they desire. Some argue though, that it is a complete waste of time because this is why they elect their representatives (they also elect their School Board members here, who determine education policy).

To make matters worse, this ballot was two pages long and involves legal jargon that is completely difficult to understand, unless you have a “voter’s guide” (which the League of Women Voters thankfully prepares for people all across the States). This guide tells you the history and background of each initiative voters have the power to change.

Long and Complicated Ballot Sheets

Long and Complicated Ballot Sheets

 There is also the issue of who chooses which name comes first on the ballot. If you see this one, John McCain and Palin’s names are first, followed by Obama and Biden. Again, this varies from state to state but in this particular case the Commission would decide – then bringing into question whether there should be actually equal numbers of ballots with either name preceding the other, or not. A former State election commissioner spoke to us about the concept of neutrality when in office.

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Obama Rally at Pueblo, Colorado Today

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G96VTyAQ6xg]

Barack Obama speaking in Pueblo, Colorado this afternoon

We cancelled our afternoon session to drive two hours from Denver to Pueblo, a small town in Colorado, when we heard Obama was coming to speak at a rally here. Obama had been to this town once before, and this time there were an estimated 20,000 people spilling onto the streets.

McCain Supporters outside Obama Rally

McCain Supporters outside Obama Rally

McCain’s supporters were demonstrating outside the rally, with slogans like “Nobama” and “Babies will die when Obama becomes President”.

People flocked from all over the United States to come, either because they had come earlier to volunteer or they drove to watch the rally intentionally. But many of those present were locals, who were hardcore Obama supporters. Young, old, a mix of faces – white, Hispanic, blacks, Asians. Security surveillance men in full black stood atop the buildings, scouring the crowd for suspicious faces.

Obama is in white on the far right of the stage

Obama is in white on the far right of the stage

After several speeches (including Michelle Obama), Barack Obama – the man himself – came on stage, amidst a throng of cheers. The man certainly has a commanding presence, no doubt about it. That he leaves you believing in something at the end is certain, but the speech seemed a little too nicely packaged. I had watched his speech the day before elsewhere, and it sounded like it was an exact recording of it. Granted, this late into the Elections you don’t want to be making any last-minute mistakes or a new concept that might shock voters (although one third of registered Americans would have voted by Tuesday morning). Although making some mention of Pueblo, and State Senator and Congressman Ken and John Salazar (Hispanics), it might have been good to make specific mention of Pueblo as a town in its own right – making relevant his Presidency to them. The counter to this, however, is that the speech is broadcast on network TV to the rest of America – and the world – and hence the message must appeal to voters all across.

The “nicely-packaged” messages included making sure that he mentioned “all of us” who were Americans – “black, white, Asians, hispanics”, “straight and gay”, “young and old”, and so on. But again, a necessity for him whose brand involves representing a wide variety of Americans. The only new message stated was in response to the morning announcement earlier that Dick Cheney was endorsing McCain, something he played up to the hilt.

The rally was like a big party, akin to the ones we’ve witnessed ourselves in March 2008 this year in Malaysia. Loud music was played on the speakers, shops were selling paraphernalia (badges, shirts, hats, banners, stickers) all the way out. People were asking for volunteers to do call-ups, asking people to make sure they went out to vote: this intiative is called a standard “Get Out The Vote” (GOTV) initiative across campaigns.

This close to the election, almost every pundit predicts a landslide victory for Obama.

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Republicanism 101: Learning it on the ground at Colorado

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QS0poGKbLrQ]

McCain-cum-Senator Schaffer Rally in Denver, Colorado.

Denver, Colorado. This is as ‘middle America’ as you can get, with brown, flat, wide spaces stretching on till the Rocky Mountains in the distance. Coming from Washington, DC, entering this city is a change of scenery. The city itself has about 590,000 residents. And a significant shift of political ideology as well, for me. DC is flagged blue all the way, with practically every analyst rooting for Obama in this year’s elections.

Here, the race has been closer. Colorado has not elected a Democratic Presidential candidate since 1992 (where it voted Clinton), although in the recent years its preference for the Democrats has been evident in its selection for Congress and Senate seats. As of 28th October, polls show Obama leading 50-44. The McCain campaign has hence needed to respond fiercely in the final throes of the fight.

Tonight I had the privilege of attending a local community Republican rally. I had expected it to be outdoors, like the Malaysian ceramahs, but it was in a warm hotel hall instead. About an estimated 400-500 people were present, an average age of about 45 years or older. Predominantly white, both males and females (but with one black lady running for State Senate). There were quite a few young people, although I suspect most were there because of their families. Nevertheless, those present were adamant about their beliefs.

Dylan and Becka, Young Republicans

Dylan and Becka, Young Republicans

I asked Dylan and Becka, two young Republicans, why they supported McCain although many of the young obviously were voting Obama this Elections. Their answer was that Obama was merely a showman without content, a good communicator. They believed in a limited government with greater individual freedoms for citizens to decide for themselves. They think mainstream media is too biased towards Obama and that Fox News is the only balanced news channel. I may disagree with them on some points, but I was generally impressed by their enthusiasm on political issues – they must have been about 18.

Boy scouts were called on to introduce the march pass the American flag, and the pledge of allegiance was read out followed by the national anthem.

McCain Supporters believe God is on their side

McCain Supporters believe God is on their side

There were several issues raised in the rally tonight that stood out. These points are obviously the same points being hammered all across the country. Although there are supposedly “50 Republican Parties in 50 States”, the national issues are standard:

  • Loyalty to God: There were several references to faith and religion, and a preacher himself spoke at the podium. “God will help us to do the righteous thing”.
  • National Security and Defence: A video was screened, showing military soldiers sacrificing their lives. “Let us put America back into a position of power”, “Obama wants open borders, We want closed borders”.
  • Individual Freedoms: Strong emphasis was placed on American citizens’ right to individual freedoms, alluding that “this country” was the only remaining country in the world with freedoms.

They did quite a bit of mudslinging as well, saying that:

  • The policies that Obama is proposing will not work in the long run, citing examples from Europe that have failed. I suppose they refer to social democratic structures resulting in large unemployment rates although these were not explicit (one may tend to differ in opinion on this as well, since I can think of several Scandinavian examples with effective results).
  • Obama was not willing to place his hand on his chest during the national pledge/anthem, hence branding him an anti-nationalist. (hence the lapel pin issue that emerged in August this year)

Although this was exactly what I had expected at a McCain rally, it was still a good exposure campaign. I was, however, disappointed that there were not more reasonable arguments made. For example, the worrying points raised repeatedly were extremely telling of the continued conservative worldview of the right-wing Christian populace supporting Republicans. In my humble opinion, it becomes a dangerous thing when God is used as free license to qualify every possible proposal by Republicans. By encouraging citizens to pray for the “righteous” outcome, it sounded like voting for Obama would be the “unrighteous” thing to do. Such blatant dichotomies can only be reflective of a narrow interpretation of faith and religion. This ties automatically all McCain – or Senator Schaffer who is running in Colorado – policies to God and anything opposite is not, apparently. As a Christian myself, I find this view unpalateable.

Also, I was disappointed with the myopic inability to see that America has to initiate conversations with the rest of the world instead of promoting “closed-borders” to improve its foreign relations. The speeches tonight assumed that the US should always begin from a position of power, an elevated vantage point. This may not necessarily be in the best interests of all other countries, including Malaysia. Some opening space of rational bilateral dialogue needs to begin, which Washington Post columnist David Ignatius in his briefing with us, thinks Obama will definitely do.

A Key Republican Issue

The Right to Own Guns: A Key Republican Issue

Finally, the Firearms Coalition of Colorado issued a Legislative Alert. The Right to own guns is a key Republican issue. The first sentence of the above brochure says “As gun owners, we all need to turn out and volunteer to work for the election of pro-gun candidates”.

This has been my introduction into heartland politics of America. It’s raw, it’s in your face. The paraphernalia of McCain, Schaffer, Palin and all other Republicans running for State Congress or Senate reminded me of the Pakatan Rakyat rallies back home. One major difference though, is how willing local, everyday citizens are in taking up office. The elderly Suzanne Andrews who is running for State Senate held my arm and told me, “I’m just a mom, I bake bread for my children, I’m no lawyer or anything like that, but my friends asked me to run and I did.” Her brochure says she protects traditional conservative values. And she is proud of it. Welcome to the Republican World.

Tomorrow, I meet with both the Democrat and Republican Campaign Headquarters in Denver, Colorado. Should be an eye opener. Hopefully I’ll hear less emotive arguments to support McCain.

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From DC to Denver, Colorado

Moving away from Washington DC, I’ll be going down to the ground tomorrow onwards. I’m looking forward to seeing Denver, Colorado for the first time. This will involve meeting with those organising voter canvassing, state level campaign strategists, youth groups, the league of women voters, and hopefully go to a political rally.

Here is a profile of the Colorado state, one of the battleground states:

Mr. Bush won this state by less than 5 points in 2004 and Democrats are making a big push here this time. Look no further than Denver, where the Democrats held their national convention. It seems to be paying off: Polls show Mr. Obama taking a lead here and Republicans are growing increasingly glum about holding the state.

All polls show that Obama will likely win, but things may shift slightly over the final days. The Latin American vote will be important in this state.

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