Tricia Yeoh

Aside from the pollsters, statistical models and pure guesswork-cum-analysis, here are two fun ways to determine which US Presidential candidate will win this year’s Elections, it is said.

First Method

For 72 out of 76 years, the victory or the defeat of the Washington Redskins has predicted who would win or lose the Presidential race. If the Redskins loses or ties with its opponent, the incumbent party loses. If the Redskins wins, then the incumbent party also wins. This result corresponded with 17 out of the last 18 elections. The game is on, on Monday night, the very night before the Election Day, so all eyes will be on the lookout.

Second Method

The 7-Eleven Poll, it is called, where outlets all across the country are selling large cups of coffee in either Red or Blue colours. They are trying to see how many Reds (representing the Republican McCain) or Blues (representing the Democrat Obama) they can sell over the counter, and use that as a predictive tool. I have to go out to buy my very own 7-Eleven cup (of course I would skew the poll since I am not actually an eligible voter..)

Mark Penn, CEO of a communications strategy company, who has been advisor to numerous politicians including Tony Blair and Hillary Clinton, drew out some demographic statistics of the voting public. Although some of these may seem too general, without specifying state-by-state differences, these are good indications of what to expect:

• In general, 50% of Americans are economy voters,
• 25% are security voters,
• 25% are values voters.

Those concerned with the economy would vote Democrat 2:1, and for those concerned with security and values would vote Republican 2:1. Ever since the economic crisis hit, this has increased the percentage of voters concerned with the economy, and every additional percentage point that “economy” is cited as a greater issue of concern over the other two, the Democrats get an advantage. Essentially, people want the candidate that they see can handle the situation at present.

Economy is Most Important

Penn stipulated that this elections is so gratifying for many because it shows a rejection of the Right. The American voting population is roughly 40% conservative, 20% moderate, and 20% liberal. Obama wins 9 in 10 liberals and has successfully managed to swing the moderates to his side, getting about 6 in 9 moderates.

• Religious conservatives still vote Republican 2:1
• Obama is losing the white vote by 10-12 percentage points, which is less than Kerry. Analysts are saying that race may not necessarily be the reason those rejecting him are doing so – it may be more to do with policy stances than race (which is a positive sign)
• Obama is getting 80% of the Latin-American vote. This will be a constituency to watch out for, since it is the fastest growing electorate and in the next elections will swell even larger with many more to be registered.

Each candidate has a general base, which would be something like this:

• Obama’s base = African Americans, upper income, upper education, liberal, democrats, young voters
• McCain’s base = Whites, conservatives, traditional Republicans, national security voters, most religious.

Viewers should not rely on exit polls to determine the predicted outcome of the elections. We must see actual votes from precincts, one by one. Exit polls are not accurate indicators at all and supporters have either falsely celebrated or cried over what they thought was the final result.

The key thing to note from all this is that a Centre-Left Coalition has emerged from Obama’s campaign. The Centre is making their decisions known in this election. In a sense, McCain is not necessarily the preferred typical Republican candidate. He has been, in his own words, a maverick of the party. He has been known to stand up to Bush, and other party members. This may be a reflection of how America’s ideology is shifting from centre-right to centre-left. What I am interested in is how this will change the population’s capitalist ideology in the future, further what would make of its free market system, trade policy (FTAs).

With the economy cited as one of the main issues in the US Election ’08, political pundits are trying to project the effect of the recent stock market rebound.

Wall Street shook off more signs of global economic troubles Tuesday and headed for a rebound while investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 368, or 4.59 percent, to 8,379.

The most recent polls show a slight tightening of the race between Obama and McCain. Can this be attributed to the recent McCain attacks of Obama being socialist? (a taboo word in capitalist America)

Gallup experts told us today that the worse the economy is doing, the better it is for Obama. With such an inverse relationship, does this spell a turn for the worse for the Democratic candidate? It is traditionally the case though, that a few days before polling the race tightens. Watch the Editor-in-Chief of Gallup, Dr. Frank Newport, state his case here.

Gallup Polls - Influencing Voters Pre-Elections?

One of the questions that we have been asking political analysts here in Washington DC is whether or not these two things are influencing voters in advance of the elections (notwithstanding the 18% of voters who have already cast their votes in early elections!):

1. Polls

2. Op-Ed pieces and Reports

This casts a new light on the issues of integrity in polling and journalism: How far should they go, without influencing the vote? To be honest, they are going to go ahead anyways, but the issue is where do you draw the line on integrity?

First, let’s talk about polling. The questions that are being asked may have a certain bias to them, perhaps? Every question asked has an expected outcome, surely. Most of the polls (check www.electoral-vote.com) conduct interviews with landline phones at home, not on handphones which would give you younger, more pro-Obama results. Secondly, only 9% of respondents complete the poll in full. So you are getting 91% of people not finishing the poll.

Further, as Obama is polling higher rates than McCain, will these lead people on to believing that they should “go with the winner”? Or will they instead react in slight fear and cause the vote to swing McCain’s way? (mind you, much of Southern America is still conservative to the full, and Obama is still a black man running for the highest seat in the country.)

Journalism. We had the honour of Bill Nichols speaking to us today, who runs Politico, an online news site which although started in January 2007 is one of the leading Elections sites today. (He worked in USA Today for 20 years and covered the White House and the State Department). His site was the first to run the story on how the Republican Party spent $150,000 on Palin’s clothes. When asked why he decided to run it, and not focus on say, the clothes of Obama, he replied that there was value to the story and he followed journalistic integrity through objectivity.

Others might argue, though, that this is not necessarily objective reasoning since the party was validly using the money that had been validly donated to them through valid means, for reasons they thought best and most suitable. All writing has a biased agenda, based primarily on the writers’ own political sentiments, and did this perhaps shine through in the selection of coverage?

Whatever it is, everyone can agree that the polling results and online articles are definitely having an influence on the perception of voters.

Capitol Steps - Hilarious Comedy Act on American Politics

American politics is not all about hard analysis and serious discussions (although this is what I have been doing practically 24 hours a day – okay, okay, minus the sleeping hours). There is great humour in all of this, as we can certainly thank Tina Fey for. Capitol Steps is a group of ex-Congress staff members who came together in the ’90s. During a Christmas party, they were supposed to have come up with a nativity play but (quoting the guy who introduced this to us), “they couldn’t find Three Wise Men and a Virgin”.

So instead, they’ve been the primary source of entertainment for Washington DC folks (yes, all the penguin-suited people on Capitol Hill and K street in town), and they were certainly cracking me up tonight. From fabulous adaptation of songs (“Obamamia” sung to the tune of “Mamma Mia”) to George Bush’s exit speech where he slurs everything and mixes things up completely (“I’ll try to explain this mess in a way everyone can understand, including me”).

Palin Sports her Favourite Moose-Shooting Rifle

 

Oprabama is the Chosen Candidate

The Democrats and Republicans are not organised the same way ours are in Malaysia. We tend to think of “political parties” as strict systems, with strict party lines, constitutions, manifestos and membership. This is not the case in the United States. As many have been telling us on this program (International Visitors Observe The Elections or I-VOTE), there are 51 different Democratic and Republican parties, for each state.

This tells of the Federalism the US practices, one where even the elections are run by the State or Local Authority. There is no such thing as a National Elections Commission. As a result, each state has their own voting system, and rules can even vary within a state.

It is a misconception to think that Americans are voting their President on 4th November, next Tuesday. What they are doing is to vote either the Democratic or Republican representatives to become members of the Electoral College. The moment there is a majority of those selecting either party, that party will sweep all available seats for that particular state. Oklahoma, for example, where I am going to be on Election Day, has 7 electoral college seats. If the voters give a majority vote to the Republican, all 7 representatives will “win” their right to vote in the Electoral College. There are 538 Electoral College seats to be filled, and a candidate would need 270 to win the Presidency.

The Electoral College then meets on the 15th December 2008, where they officially vote the President of their choice. Most of the time they vote according to the candidate their party has endorsed. There have been times where delegates have voted the independent candidate. Finally, on January 8th after the votes are tallied, only then can the new President of the US of A be officially announced as head of the country.

What continues to fascinate me is that there is no one hardline stance taken by the parties, neither do they shove their party belief system down any of their supporters (nay, not even the Presidential candidates themselves). The words Democrat and Republican have become more adjectives than nouns, in that they are descriptive of the character of people. I can be “Democrat today, Republican tomorrow”. Presidential candidates hence become their own agenda setters, each choosing to champion a particular policy stand of choice.

Presidential elections are really, at the end of the day – determined by the state. It gives further truth to the meaning of “United States” of America, since really, it is about the states independently choosing their representatives, and then uniting because they happen to think they want a common leader who will take care of the Federal issues. Any other issue, leave it to the State and National governments!

511,000 people hold public office in the United States. Yes there is 1 Federal Govenrment, but also 50 States and the District of Columbia, 561 Native American Indian tribes (that have their own elections), 3033 County Governments (like our States), 14561 School Systems (voters elect their own School Boards who can shape education policy!!), 35949 Towns, Townships and Municipalities, and 17381 other special districts.

This Election is NOT just about Obama and McCain. There are Senate elections going on; other township and school board elections going on too. I will be observing all of these simultaneously! And THIS is actually the heart of American politics. The fact that it is locally-driven, bottoms-up, participatory. (Unfortunately, this is also the reason why Americans are so myopic and think little about foreign policy. Because they spend all their time keeping their representatives accountable to the voters, and what makes them care are the details of everyday living, not so much, at the end of the day, what happens in Iraq or Afghanistan).

American politics is Local, Local, Local. I have to keep reminding myself of this!

Today, Mr. Greg Schneiders who was Deputy Assistant to the President for Communications in the Carter White House – speechwriting and communication strategy – talked to us about branding and marketing of Presidential candidates. Some of the interesting things to note if you want to take over the country (hint, hint, Anwar Ibrahim.. or Najib Razak..):

“You want to allow people to be able to imagine you as President.”

This is what Obama did, and all three Presidential debates helped him. He was always at ease and cool, even when McCain was attacking him. In the first debate, McCain did not even look at him squarely in the eye. In terms of physique, McCain is old and bent (no fault of his, he is old of course and had severe injuries when a prisoner of war, so his arms can’t fold properly and neither can he do up his own tie), whilst Obama at 48 is energetic, tall and strapping, emanating new life in his very being. But all these aside, McCain could have very well rode on his own personality of stability and comfort, things that Americans actually love. Instead, he made 3 big boo-boos, according to Schneiders. These are:

1. Sarah Palin: Palin, oh Palin. Instead of the capable Alaskan Governor she was known by, the campaign turned her into a bimbo who understood foreign policy from her window looking over to Russia, moose-shootin’, lass who allowed campaign money to be spent lavishly on her wardrobe. “Is she doing more harm than good” to McCain’s campaign is what everyone is asking in the final few days.
2. Deciding to go back to DC to “help with the economic crisis” and almost missing the 1st Presidential Debate. Instead, Obama just acted cool about the whole thing, and used it to his advantage even. The President of the United States, he said, must be able to handle more than one thing at a time. Simultaneous task-juggling was what he could do, and millions of Americans across the country would have seen him doing so with not so much as a quiver in his voice.
3. Joe the Plumber – When “Joe the Plumber” (he’s not even a plumber, really – just works in a plumbing company) was introduced in the Presidential Debate, it may have been relevant and even unique to introduce an actual person, but the Washington critics are saying he has oversimplified the economic situation. Further, he keeps on raising the issue of Joe even today. No sophistication of argument. Repeating it over the TV ads may be shooting himself in the foot.

Obama has a strong sense of self, confident and comfortable in his own skin, and everyone can see this plainly. To be a leader, it is said that you have to know yourself first, and know what you are after.

Americans have had Obama screened in their living rooms for so long that they can see this for themselves. Seven days to go, and McCain seems to be losing ground… (but you can never tell, things change quickly in the final days!)

Voter Education

If there’s one thing that Malaysians can learn about the pre-election buzz of the States, it is the way in which citizens have been driving things – from the very bottom up. The booklet shown above is called “Choosing the President 2008: A Citizen’s Guide to the Electoral Process”, published by the League of Women Voters, distributed for free across the country. It gives a full detailed account about the Primaries and Caucuses (part of the US electoral system), campaign financing, and who the candidates and players are.

Volunteerism is another big thing here. They come in droves, to do everything from voter canvassing (finding out who the voters are in a particular constituency and figuring out which issues they are really interested in – linking that with the campaign messaging and strategy of the candidate), to going house-to-house (they also make sure that these houses are targeted beforehand so you don’t knock on a non-voter’s door! A funny story was told where a Senator candidate actually knocked on the house of his ex-wife’s mother!). They spend hours and hours strategising and have an organised framework.

Citizens are the ones driving the campaign, and this is obvious here. Because the parties don’t work like in Malaysia, where you have one centralised party decision-making mechanism, the process is different. Here, it’s more like 51 different Democrat parties, 51 different Republican parties, hence 51 different “elections” being held across the country! A campaign manager for a particular state will – independent of the central party committee since there isn’t one anyway – have to decide on the following teams of people: IT, political, communication, fundraising, research, and scheduling. Apart from that you need a media consulting team, and a pollster team.

Grassroots organisations are running the show, bigtime. You decide on the “vote goal” – the number of votes you are targeting for that particular area, or constituency. You use psychologial warfare, you carve out the niche area that your candidate can position in voters’ eyes. You have a big database of voters, you jolly well know your people and what they are interested in. This becomes your “walkabout Bible”. You make sure you build coalitions with different community groups of people who have some stake in your running of Presidency (in our case, running of MPs):

Teachers, womens groups, civil society, senior citizens, environmentalists, tax collectors etc etc. (in the States, you target NRA members – National Rifle Association – or those who oppose it; pro-choice groups of pro-life groups, and so on).

The groundswell of activity, interest and passion in the US Elections is amazing, and this is one of the things that people think Obama will be the winner – because of the hype of activity in Democrat Headquarters, not the same in the Republican HQs. But I shall observe for myself soon. I’ll be flying to Denver, Colorado on Thursday afternoon to speak to the campaigners and hopefully go to a rally! My mind swings back to March 2008 during the rallies and ceramahs of our own.

Obama and McCain poll ratings

The countdown begins in America, with all eyes and ears on the final push between Obama and McCain: 7 days to go! Yesterday we were brought to the US State Department for a briefing on the US system of government and the key trends and issues in Election 2008. Today we visited the international headquarters of Gallup Poll. In between we’ve had numerous speakers talking to us about the campaigning strategy, media strategy and others. Learning a lot which can definitely be transferred back to Malaysia. (Next elections!)

The reason this will probably be one of the most historic election in the States yet is because of some of the following: It’s the first time since 1952 that none of the incumbents are running as either Presidential or Vice-Presidential candidates. No matter the outcome, the US will either have the first African-American President or the first lady Vice-President. It is also the longest campaign ever, and the most expensive, costing more than USD1 billion.

The US practices early voting, which is seeing more voters coming out than ever before. It is estimated that by 4th November, next Tuesday, one third of the voters would have cast their ballots already. The state of Oregon, for example, is using ONLY postal votes.

As we all know, the main issue overriding the elections is: the Economy (it’s the economy, stupid). Gallup interviews 1000 people a day, everyday. Those who worry about money are more inclined towards voting Obama. Because things are going so negatively here, any candidate wanting to bring about change is going to have a significant advantage over the incumbent: obviously the Democrats are using it to the full. By disassociating himself from Bush and the Republican economic policies, Obama is leading the race. Better for Obama, Bush’s approval rating has dropped to his all-time low of 25%. (His all-time high was just after September 11th 2001, a 90% rate).

Religion is also another issue. We already know that the conservative religious right (also known as the evangelicals) are most likely to vote Republican – whoever the candidate is – and the Gallup poll stresses this: Those who attend church regularly are McCain supporters. But interestingly, more than 90% of the blacks would vote Obama – and these are probably very religious as well! 

On religion, Focus on the Family has issued a nasty letter predicting what would happen in the future should Obama win (sparking what critics are calling “the politics of fear”), including the following (read it in full here):

Far-left liberals could hold a 6-3 majority on the U.S. Supreme Court.

The nation’s highest court could rule same-sex “marriage” is a constitutional right — in all 50 states.

Preaching from the Bible could be banned from radio and television.

States may not be able to restrict abortion, and taxpayers could be forced to fund abortions.

In several states, it could be illegal to own a gun.

There are severe responses from alternative Christian groups such as Matthew 25, who are into issues of climate change and trying to provide another way of interpreting the Christian faith – it is turning out to be a psychological war of words and concepts. The key is whether or not they will make any headway at all into the evangelical heartland of America. The people are more interested in domestic issues of lifestyle, gay marriage, abortion, social security instead of foreign policy (although the rest of us would like to think that Iraq and Afghanistan feature strongly in their voter sentiment – they do not!).

“If there were only whites voting in America, McCain would win”, Dr. Frank Newport stated, the head of Gallup International – showing us a chart that showed 44% of whites support Obama, and 48% supporting McCain. Of course, this would change if we did a cross-section showing the young white, because the young overwhelmingly support Obama. Does race still feature strongly in the election? That discussion still continues, but most of the political experts here have said to our face that Obama is going to win.

But not so fast: polls sometimes have their flaws. First because they tend to call users who have landlines. Although Gallup has updated its methodology to include cell phones, other polls usually call people at home and skews the results. Also, there is always a margin of error which people forget (and the Obama-McCain lead is only several points apart). Plus, nearing Election Day, the gap seems to be closing (even if ever so slightly) – this is worrying for the Democrats. Nevertheless, it would probably take a major event taking place for Obama to lose. Some are predicting a landslide victory.

In the meantime, Obama has the financial advantage. He does not have Federal restrictions on the amount of money he can spend on advertising, McCain does. He will be pumping loads of cash into TV ads over the final week. Tomorrow he will be buying up half an hour of ad space on TV. And the ads are bordering on downright vicious. Obama ads show footage of McCain saying “I voted with Bush 90% of the time”, and saying that McCain is trying to make people scared. McCain ads say Obama has no experience and are trying to frighten people into thinking they are voting for the “unknown”.